Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Falling Knives: Is It Time To Pick A Bottom In the U.S. Stock Market?

From its intra-day high at 3,393 on February 18th, 2020, the benchmark S&P 500 Index fell 32.8% to its intra-day low of 2,280 today March 18th, 2020.

You have to go back to October 1987 to find this kind of loss in just 30 days! And in my 45-year experience in trading stocks, I can never remember the day-to -day volatility that we've seen over the last month. 1000-point daily swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average seem to be commonplace, and 10% single-day moves in individual stocks are now standard-fare.

United Airlines stock was down 30% today, and this company's share price saw a 78% decline from high to low since February 12, 2020.

In just three weeks, the Trump Administration's message on the CoronaVirus has gone from complete denial just three weeks ago to the most dangerous global threat since World War II now. Researchers at Goldman Sachs, a premier global financial giant, are now predicting that as many as 150 million U.S. citizens could be infected with this virus over the next several months.

With all this bad news, is it foolish to think that there may be a meaningful bounce in the U.S. stock market on the immediate horizon? NO, it's NOT foolish! I firmly believe it's now time to buy stocks!! Right now!

The U.S. Federal Reserve is firing all its cannons to fight the current liquidity crisis that has contributed to the massive decline in share prices over the last month. Global central banks now appear to be coordinating (at least tacitly) to support financial asset prices and stem the tide of selling. And now the Trump Administration and the U.S. Congress appear ready and willing to spend at least $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus over the very near term to boost the economy.

While I think precious metals mining shares are ready to lead the market higher, just buying the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) should give you the diversified exposure you need to eliminate non-systematic risk and provide an extraordinary chance to post significant capital gains over a very short time horizon.