The Longest Monthly Equities Rally In U.S. History Just Ended Today!

As of today's close, November 30th, 2017, the U.S. stock market posted its record 13th straight month without a loss!

There will not be a 14th month!!

Not even passage of a Republican "Tax Reform" Plan can save this market!!

Despite the fact that the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 332 points today (+1.39%) to a new record high at 24,272, major sell signals were triggered in my computer trading system.

Monthly chart sell signals became official today in AMAT, ATVI, GWRE, KLAC, KO, LGND, MCHP, MU, SMH, and XLNX

Semiconductors Holders ETF Monthly Chart with Computer-generated Buy & Sell Signals

Weekly chart sell signals were triggered this week in AZPN, COR, FB, GOOG, OSTK, SNE, TXN, VALE, VMW, YELF, and Z

FaceBook Weekly Chart with Computer-generated Buy & Sell Signals

Google Weekly Chart with Computer-generated Buy & Sell Signals

Remembering Henry Blodget and His Sensational Forecast in Amazon

In mid-December 1998, a gutsy young Wall Street tech analyst named Henry Blodget (while working for CIBC Oppenheimer) made one of the great Dot Com calls of all time when he raised his target price for Amazon from $150/share to $400/share (pre-splits, of course). The Dot Com mania still had another year to run and, incredibly, Blodget's forecast actually came true!

Blodget's "cheer-leading" of the Dot Com stocks at that time would eventually get him in trouble later after the monumental collapse in Dot Com stock prices beginning in early January 2000 and lasting through most of 2001. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index fell more than 80% over that time period and Amazon's stock price fell 94%.

Today, another savvy young tech analyst, this time from Morgan Stanley, made another sensational call in Amazon. Brian Nowak, Morgan's tech analyst in his mid 30's with 10 years experience and a solid track record, announced that Amazon is destined to soar to $2,000 per share as soon as one year from now, which equates to a $1 trillion market capitalization! Given Amazon's stock price of $1,125 before the release of Nowak's bullish research report, a $2,000 per share stock price in a year would translate into about a 78% annual rate of return. Nowak's forecast here is among the gutsiest calls I've ever heard, especially given the fact that Amazon doesn't currently make any significant profits, trades at 285 trailing twelve month earnings, and is likely to face significant regulatory headwinds over the next several years because of its predatory pricing policies.

When Blodget made his sensational call in December 1998, Amazon's stock price jumped 25% that day. I find it interesting that Nowak's even more sensational call today resulted in a rally of just 0.34% in Amazon's stock price!

Bottom line: Amazon's record intra-day high today (Monday) at $1,139.90 may very well be the high in this Wall Street darling for quite some time! A major correction in this closely watched "FAANG" stock probably began today (November 13th) from its high at $1,139.90 in the last hour of NY dealings, and the loss of market leadership from Amazon will almost certainly have negative consequences for the broader market.

Amazon (AMZN) Daily Chart

The Most Ominous Threat to the Bull Market in U.S. & Global Equity Prices

The most ominous threat to equity prices is clearly the newly implemented program of "quantitative tightening" by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the multiple interest rate hikes now being projected by the FOMC over the next several quarters!

In last week's "Tipping Point" column in this space, 15 threats to the bull market in U.S. and global equity prices were detailed. However, one particular threat is the single most dangerous for investors in U.S. and global equity prices.

U.S. Federal Reserve officials have been consistent and almost adamant in their hawkish rhetoric (especially) over the last several months. Chair Yellen has led the charge in favor of another interest rate hike in December 2017 and as many as three more in 2018. More importantly, in my view, is the NEW policy of "quantitative tightening" which involves the "slow" but steady liquidation of the Fed's bloated $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

While I am unsure why financial market participants are NOT taking the Fed's hawkish monetary policy rhetoric more seriously, let's take a quick look at the Fed's recent ACTIONS to see if the Fed is actually implementing its well telegraphed warnings. Fortunately, all we need to do is analyze the Fed's regular Thursday weekly release of  the "Factors Affecting Reserve Balances" report. Believe it or not, this is a fairly easy read for almost any trader or investor who has been around the block for a while. On the very first page of this weekly report, there is a summary line item entitled "Total factors supplying reserve funds". This is the key line to see the net change in the Fed's balance sheet on a week to week basis. 

In the latest release dated Thursday, November 9, 2017, the Fed liquidated $2.627 billion in assets (net) from its balance sheet as compared to the previous week. While there was a $1.576 billion increase in "Other Federal Reserve Assets", mostly accrued interest on its massive $4.5 trillion portfolio, the most fascinating number on this week's Fed release is the $4.375 billion liquidation of Treasury securities (Notes & Bonds)! Just maybe, and I'm just spit-balling here, this past week's collapse in U.S. debt prices (Treasury notes & bonds, Corporate investment grade bonds, and Corporate High Yield bonds) had something to do with the Fed's "slow", but determined liquidation of its balance sheet! On the previous week's Fed release dated Thursday, November 1, it shows that $1.75 billion in Treasury notes and bonds were liquidated AND also $4.57 billion in Mortgage-backed securities were liquidated! In the week ended October 26th, the Fed liquidated $4.78 billion in Mortgage-backed securities!!

Yes, watch what the Fed SAYS and watch what it actually DOES! Quantitative Tightening is happening NOW! It's REAL and it's the most dangerous threat to U.S. and global equity prices!!

Bottom line: Storm clouds are everywhere now! Investors would do well to head for the sidelines by raising significant cash and/or by hedging equity portfolios with a mountain of downside protection! The price of downside protection is now the cheapest in the history of modern-day financial markets!!

Here are several charts of key debt prices and key interest rates:

High Yield Corporate Bond ETF Daily Chart with Computer-generated Buy & Sell Signals

Corporate Investment Grade Bonds ETF (symbol LQD) Daily Chart

Treasury Bond ETF (symbol TLT) Daily Chart

Treasury Note 10-Year Yield (symbol TNX) Monthly Chart

Treasury Bond 30-year Yield (symbol TYX) Monthly Chart

Tipping Point

For most traders and investors in U.S. stocks and bonds, the following questions appear to be relevant and central to immediate and longer term trading and investment decisions:

1. Will the ongoing investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller into Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. Elections ever have an impact on U.S. financial asset prices? If yes, then when?

2. Are there more indictments forthcoming in Mueller's Russian investigation? If yes, then when? And will these indictments impact financial asset prices?

3. Headlines in the media this past weekend indicate that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross may be connected to the Kremlin and/or Russian financial interests. Does this matter to traders and investors in U.S. stocks? If yes, then when?

4. At the end of the day (defined as 18 months or less), will President Trump be implicated by Mueller's office in the Russian investigation? Could President Trump be implicated in "crimes and/or misdemeanors" unrelated to the Russian investigation (but uncovered by Mueller's office)? Could President Trump be swept up in the nationwide sexual harassment and assault investigations that have been triggered by the alleged Harvey Weinstein scandals? Is it possible to indict a sitting U.S. President (i.e. Paula Jones vs President William Clinton)?

5. If President Trump is impeached or forced to resign, will Vice President Mike Pence become President (and then pardon Mr. Trump)? Or is it possible that any potential impeachment process might also include Vice President Pence?

6. If the Democratic Party wins back the House of Representatives (and maybe even the Senate) in next year's November 2018 elections, and if President Trump is still in office, will the Democratic controlled House of Representatives then vote to impeach President Trump (and maybe even VP Pence)?

7. If President Trump and Vice President Pence are both impeached beginning in January 2019 and if they are then both found guilty by the Senate, does that mean House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi would then become President? 

8. If pressure on the Trump Administration continues to escalate in connection with the Russian investigation, how will this affect the Republicans' efforts at Tax Reform (tax cuts, no real reform)? Does the fact that France now wants to raise the corporate tax rate to 45% from the current level of 33% work against the U.S. Republican Party's push right now to lower the U.S. corporate tax rate to 20% from 35%?

9. Are the Democrats in Congress strong enough to force a "shutdown" of the U.S. Government in upcoming budget negotiations as scheduled in December 2017? If so, how will this impact U.S. financial asset prices?

10. According to reports from CNBC and the New York Times, NY Federal Reserve President William Dudley may announce his early retirement in a speech this coming week. William Dudley was a strong advocate for Chair Janet Yellen to be re-appointed. If Dudley retires, the Federal Reserve Board would then need five new members in addition to the newly appointed Chairman (Jerome Powell). Will these upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve Board impact U.S. financial asset prices? If so, when and how?

11. Until now, investors in U.S. stocks and bonds have ignored hawkish monetary policy comments and rhetoric from almost every U.S. Federal Reserve official over the last several months. However, a careful review of the latest weekly financial report from the U.S. Federal Reserve (weekly reports are released late Thursday each week) reveals that the Fed's balance sheet actually showed a $6 billion reduction in assets in the month of October just ended. Chairman Yellen announced to the financial markets that the Fed would, in fact, begin to reduce its balance sheet by $10 billion per month this quarter, and then scale up these reductions by $10 billion per quarter over the next year. Will this so-called "quantitative tightening" have any impact on U.S. financial asset prices? If so, when?

12. According to this weekend's press reports, major arrests have been made in Saudi Arabia that include Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal, a prominent member of the Royal Family and a wealthy investor (worth about $20 billion) with large stakes in many U.S. equities. There are also reports of the death of another Saudi Prince and a large group of Saudi generals in a downed helicopter on the Saudi/Yemen border. And to add insult to injury, (Iran-backed) Yemen now appears to have actually fired one or more missiles into Saudi Arabia which targeted the King Khalid International Airport in the Capital of Riyadh. According to a statement from the Saudi coalition carried by the state-run Saudi Press Agency, the missile that targeted Riyadh has been called "a direct military aggression" by Iran against Saudi Arabia, that "could rise to be considered an act of war." Is there a risk of war or major confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia? If so, will the United States get involved? And does this matter at all to traders and investors in U.S. stocks and bonds?
13. Is China’s financial system significantly more vulnerable now due to its extremely high leverage? Incredibly, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan actually offered this warning in a report released this past weekend! “Hidden, complex, sudden, contagious and hazardous” risks are accumulating in China’s financial system. These remarks, published on the Central Bank’s website on Saturday, are the latest in a series of warnings from the People’s Bank of China chief on the potential vulnerabilities to the financial system in light of elevated leverage. Will China's President Xi Jinping actually reign in dangerous leverage in China's economy (especially in the highly leveraged "shadow banking system")? And how will global markets respond if China's economy slows dramatically? The August 2015 melt down in U.S. stock prices was precipitated by an overnight collapse in China's financial markets!
14. Spain is preparing to arrest all the key members of the separatist Catalonia's governing cabinet. Extradition efforts from Belgium appear to be successful and arrests are expected early this week. Madrid's ruling class has now scheduled a "snap" election on December 21st with respect to Catalonia's recent attempt at independence. It looks to me like this snap election may backfire on Madrid and actually legitimize Catalonia's independence effort. If the secessionist vote wins in December, are there financial consequences to Spain and the European Union in general which may not have been considered by global investors?

15. There are credible reports that the North Korean government is preparing to launch another missile when President Trump visits our Asian allies over the next 10 days. If this happens while President Trump is in Japan, China, or South Korea, what will be the U.S. response (if any)? Does this matter at all to U.S. financial asset prices? Is any potential confrontation with North Korea priced into U.S. stock prices?

Is there a TIPPING POINT when bearish news and equity valuation concerns actually begin to matter for here in the United States? And if so, what is the downside risk to investors in U.S. stocks (and bonds)? When will the current winning strategy of "buying every dip" turn disastrous (if ever) for traders and investors?

Several major U.S. stock market indexes posted all-time highs this past Friday, November 3rd. Records seemed to be broken on a daily basis with respect to the current stock market advance which began in March 2009. There have been only 5 trading days in the last year when the S&P 500 Index has lost more than 1% in a single day, and there have been no days when the SPX lost more than 2%. This "Teflon Market" has been immune to every potential bearish news cycle and every potential valuation concern. Momentum investors have overwhelmed value investors, and historically reliable "contrary" indicators have been worthless for any bearish traders who have dared to step in front of this northbound train.

Does it matter that Amazon's largest shareholder just sold $1.1 billion worth of his Amazon stock holdings? This is the 2nd sale of a $1 billion worth of Amazon stock by Jeff Bezos this year. His last sale was in May 2017. Will Amazon ever make any real money? Will NetFlix ever make any real money? Will Tesla ever make any real money? Is it possible that profits are NOT the real objective for Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk? Are they both just closet consumer advocates (in the extreme) who never really intend to make money in their highly regarded corporations? If so, when will investors wake up to the mounting evidence supporting this view here? Is it true that Amazon has been quietly discounting third party vendor items on its website by as much as 10% over the last two weeks in order to effectively compete with giants like Walmart and other major retailers this holiday season? And the discounts won't stop at 10%! Can Apple really sell enough $1,000 phones to meet it bold and optimistic 4th quarter financial forecasts as reported last Friday? And if consumers actually buy Apple's projected number of $1,000 phones, will consumers have any discretionary income remaining to buy anything else?

Lots of questions! All pointing to only one conclusion!! The U.S. stock market is poised on the precipice of a major decline!!

The TIPPING POINT is now!

The following two charts have been posted here courtesy of research from Dr. John Hussman, Chief Investment Officer of the Hussman Funds and President of the Hussman Investment Trust. Both charts speak for themselves.