Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Special Update: Gold


Here are just a few of the negative headlines on the price of Gold in the financial media today:

"Gold is doing something it hasn't done in 17 years"
 
"Gold loses luster"
 
"Here's why gold could be headed to $800: Insana"
 
"A final purge to $700? What gold bulls' surrender might look like"

You would think with all these bearish headlines, Gold prices must have totally collapsed recently and that there is no hope for any rebound or sustained advance for Gold on almost any time horizon.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Shares (symbol GLD), the biggest exchange-traded product backed by the yellow metal, fell to a six-year low today, contracting for a seventh day in the longest run of declines since June 2013. And the Gold price is heading for the first consecutive annual retreat since 2000.

As of this writing (8:00 PM Central Time on Wednesday evening), Gold for December delivery is trading at about $1,159 an ounce on the Comex in New York.

Wow! Has bearish sentiment in the Gold market ever been higher? Maybe so, but not in my recollection.

If holdings in the Gold Shares ETF (GLD) are at the lowest in 6 years, and if almost every financial media article and research report is negative, and if large vocal Wall Street trading firms are calling for Gold prices to soon fall below $1,000/oz, perhaps we should ask the question ARE THERE ANY WEAK HANDS LEFT IN THIS MARKET?

Gold prices were about unchanged today, despite all the negative rhetoric. And Gold is actually up about 2.65% since the recent intra-day bottom at $1,130/oz on November 7th. And the GDX Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF posted a plus day today and is now up 10.88% from its recent low!

What am I missing? 

Recent price action in Gold looks extremely bullish to me! Recent price action in many Gold mining shares looks extremely bullish to me! Recent buying patterns in the actual physical gold market look extremely bullish to me. Real interest rates in most of the major global economies are actually negative despite loud central bank protests claiming that "deflation" is a looming threat to growth and prosperity. Negative real interest rates will provide the "rocket fuel" for sharply higher Gold prices immediately ahead!

In the interest of full disclosure, I am long Gold/Silver mining shares and short the S&P 500 Index.

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