Thursday, October 2, 2014

U.S. Stock Market: Live By The Sword; Die By The Sword

Ninety-eight (98) daily chart buy signals were triggered by my computer trading system at today's NY close. While it's not unusual for daily chart buy signals to be triggered in a market where monthly chart sell signals are in force, it is unusual to see so many!

In the interest of full disclosure, I've covered all my short positions, sold all my Pro Shares Ultra Short SDS ETF's, and I am now long a small position in Las Vegas Sands (LVS). Even though the Russell 2000 Index fell more than 10% (top to bottom) in this latest correction, I wasn't short the Russell 2000 while being more bearish these past few months than I have ever been in my 35-year career. I was short the S&P 500 instead, and I scrambled every day (it seemed) just to stay alive. The correction in the S&P 500 Index since September 19th was -4.6%, but bearish traders were constantly thwarted by wild counter-trend rebounds.

The longer term signals in my computer trading system, weekly and monthly, are still negative and continue to forecast a serious bear market ahead. However, the daily chart signals turned positive today, and I refuse to sit through another advance, even if it may be short-lived.

The most interesting daily chart buy signal today was the Philadelphia Bank Index (BKX), but other daily chart buy signals are also worth mentioning. In addition to the RUT-2000 and the BKX, index buy signals were triggered in XAU (Gold/Silver Stocks) and HGX (Housing Stocks).

If a picture is worth a 1,000 words, then the charts below strongly suggest that shorts should be covered and selected longs may be worth considering.

Russell 2000 Index Daily Chart with 200MA,. 3-Std Dev Bollinger Bands, & Computer Signals

Gold Mining Shares ETF (GDX) Daily Chart with 200MA, 3-Std Dev. Bollinger Bands, and Computer Signals


Philadelphia Bank Stock Index (BKX) Daily Chart with 200MA, 3-Std Dev. Bollinger Bands, & Computer Signals


Las Vegas Sands (LVS) Weekly Chart with 200MA, 3-Std Dev. Bollinger Bands, & Computer Signals



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