The weekly changes for most major U.S. 14,081 in early morning trade, then promptly fell 298 points to end the day at 13,784. Italian elections dominated the news, but investors were also worried about the potential ramifications of so-called “sequester” spending cuts. Concerns proved short-lived, however, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reassured Wall Street on Tuesday and Wednesday that the Federal Reserve would continue its easy monetary stance forever, or at least until the U.S. U.S.
Here are Friday’s closing marks, with changes from Thursday’s close, and also with changes on the week, respectively:
Friday’s Change Weekly Change
Dow Jones Industrial Average 14,089.66 + 35.17 +0.25% +89.09 +0.64%
S&P 500 Index 1,518.20 + 3.52 +0.23% + 2.60 +0.17%
NASDAQ Composite Index 3,169.74 + 9.55 +0.30% + 4.98 +0.16%
Russell 2000 Index 914.73 + 3.62 +0.40 - 1.40 -0.15%
Four weeks ago, in this column, I began to warn of a major stock market top. Here are the closing prices of the major stock market averages on Friday, February 1st when I first raised the yellow flag:
S&P 500 Index 1,513.17
Dow Jones Industrial Average 14,009.79
NASDAQ Composite Index 3,179.10
Russell 2000 Index 911.20
Incredibly, the changes are almost insignificant since then. The DJIA, SPX, and Russell 2000 are all up slightly, and the NASDAQ Composite is down slightly. The $64,000 question now is where do we go from here? The market WAS overbought on most technical indicators on February 1st, but maybe the sideways action of the last month has worked off this overbought status, and maybe a reasonable platform (base) is now established for another up-thrust to new highs?
Sell signals were triggered in most major stock market averages tracked in my computer trading system at the close of trading on February 20th. The DJIA has since traded higher than its intra-day high of that day, but all the other major averages are still below their intra-day highs from that day. I guess the question needs to be asked: “Is my computer system any good?” There are three different time ranges analyzed by my computer system: (1) Daily Bar Charts, (2) Weekly Bar Charts, (3) Monthly Bar Charts. The Daily Bar Chart signals are the least reliable, but they are still pretty darn good. My sell signals from February 20th were Daily Chart signals. Weekly Chart and Monthly Chart sell signals have yet to be triggered in any major U.S. stock market average.
For your review, I have attached the daily bar chart for the S&P 500 Index. All the buy and sell signals from my computer-based trading system are reflected here, including the sell signal from February 20th. In theory, this sell signal will abort if the intra-day high on February 20th at 1,530.94 is violated on the upside. This may very well happen this coming Monday.
I want to take a quick moment to point out a daily chart buy signal that was triggered in the Silver ETF (symbol SLV) at Friday’s close, March 1st. This chart is also included below for your review. I believe that Silver is about to begin an extraordinary upside advance.
According to statistics from the U.S. Mint (www.usmint.gov), silver coins totaling 3,368,500 ounces of silver were sold in February 2013, the highest total for any February in history and more than double the monthly sales recorded in February 2012 at 1,490,000 ounces. Year-to-date 2013 silver sales by the U.S. Mint through February 28th totaled 10,866,500 ounces as compared to 7,597,000 ounces sold in the same two months last year. As incredible as it sounds, sales of American Silver Eagle coins have been so robust this year that the U.S. Mint had to temporarily suspend sales for about a week beginning January 23, 2013 because it had sold out of its entire inventory at that time.
Most of the silver mining stocks look attractive to me. In the interest of full disclosure, several of the accounts that I oversee include positions in Endeavour Silver (EXK) and First Majestic Silver (AG).
According to statistics from the U.S. Mint (www.usmint.gov), silver coins totaling 3,368,500 ounces of silver were sold in February 2013, the highest total for any February in history and more than double the monthly sales recorded in February 2012 at 1,490,000 ounces. Year-to-date 2013 silver sales by the U.S. Mint through February 28th totaled 10,866,500 ounces as compared to 7,597,000 ounces sold in the same two months last year. As incredible as it sounds, sales of American Silver Eagle coins have been so robust this year that the U.S. Mint had to temporarily suspend sales for about a week beginning January 23, 2013 because it had sold out of its entire inventory at that time.
 |
| American Silver Eagle Coin Sales - Temporarily Suspended by U.S. Mint |
Bottom Line: While I remain negative on the U.S. Stock Market, I think new 5-year recovery highs will be posted in both the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average early this coming week. Will the DJIA post a record closing high above 14,164.53? Since we’re only 75 points away right now, it’s not a stretch to think this will happen. Bearish pundits like me probably thought they would get more traction (downside action) from Washington
.jpg) |
| S&P 500 Index with Computer-based Buy & Sell Signals |
+Daily+Bar+Chart+(030113).jpg) |
| Silver ETF (symbol SLV) Daily Bar Chart with Computer-based Buy & Sell Signals |
No comments:
Post a Comment